blackswan

This isn’t a scene from a sci-fi thriller. It’s a formal risk assessment landing on the desks of the world's most powerful central bankers.

Recent reports have surfaced regarding a warning sent to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. The source? Helen McCaw, a Cambridge graduate and former systemic risk analyst at the Bank. Her message is chillingly pragmatic: The global economy is currently unprepared for "Ontological Shock."

What is "Ontological Shock"?

It’s the moment reality as we know it is fundamentally rewritten. McCaw argues that the physical presence of non-human intelligence (NHI) isn't the threat—it’s the announcement of it.

According to the warning, a formal government confirmation could trigger:

• Total Trust Collapse: If the fundamental nature of reality has been "omitted" from the public record, trust in every institution (including banks) may evaporate instantly.

• Cascading Bank Failures: Fear-driven bank runs and the freezing of global payment systems.

• Machine-Speed Volatility: Markets would likely spiral into "limit down" scenarios before the public even processes the news.

• Supply Chain Paralysis: Social unrest and scarcity driven by a sudden, global shift in priorities.

Why is the Bank of England Listening?

McCaw isn't speculating on "little green men"; she’s analyzing probabilistic risk. Based on recent U.S. declassifications and official UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) statements, she argues that even a low-probability event requires a high-level response when the consequences are irreversible.

When a major newspaper reports that the world’s oldest central bank is being urged to prepare for "Aliens," it’s no longer a fringe theory. It’s a Black Swan event that is officially on the radar.

The Question: In a world where central banks are quietly discussing the collapse of social order, how do you hedge against a reality-shifting event?

Do you view this as a necessary exercise in extreme risk management, or is this just institutional noise? I’d love to hear your thoughts on how "ontological shock" would impact the assets you hold. 👇

#SystemicRisk #BankOfEngland #UAP #MacroEconomics #BlackSwan #Write2Earn
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Have you ever seen a black swan? Probably not. They’re not common (unless you’re in Australia), and we’re more accustomed to white swans worldwide. That’s why, since 2001, the writer and mathematician Nassim Nicholas Taleb has used this rare animal to describe outlier events, often negative, very impactful, and almost impossible to predict. That’s the ‘Black Swan Theory’.
The term doesn’t differ that much in the cryptocurrency realm. A Black Swan Event in crypto is an unexpected and rare event that has a huge impact on the market, often causing extreme price crashes or major disruptions. As we’ve said before, these events are usually unpredictable, but they may seem obvious only in hindsight. Examples include major exchange collapses, sudden regulatory crackdowns, or yes, a global pandemic. 
Besides the price volatility, a sudden event like this can spread fear and uncertainty, causing many to sell their holdings, reducing liquidity. Governments might respond with stricter regulations, affecting businesses and users. If trust in the market weakens, adoption could slow down, making it harder for cryptocurrencies to reach widespread use. However, Black Swan Events don’t tend to repeat themselves – that’s why they are difficult to predict.

Previous Black Swans in Crypto
The COVID-19 pandemic was a major Black Swan Event that impacted global markets, including crypto. In March 2020, as fear spread, investors rushed to sell risky assets, causing $BTC and other cryptocurrencies to crash by over 50% in just a few days. However, as governments introduced stimulus measures and interest in digital assets grew, crypto markets rebounded and reached new all-time highs in the following years. This event highlighted both the volatility and resilience of cryptocurrencies.

The Mt. Gox collapse in 2014 was another major Black Swan Event. Mt. Gox was considered, by many sources, the biggest Bitcoin exchange at the time. However, due to mismanagement and hacks, it lost around 850,000 BTC, leading to its bankruptcy. The collapse shook investor confidence and caused Bitcoin’s price to drop significantly. It also exposed the need for better security and regulation in crypto exchanges, shaping the industry’s approach to risk management.
In 2022, the Terra (LUNA) crash and FTX bankruptcy were two of the most devastating Black Swan Events. Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin, UST, lost its peg (it wasn’t stable anymore), wiping out billions of dollars and collapsing the entire ecosystem. Later that year, FTX, one of the largest exchanges, went bankrupt due to fraud and mismanagement (and likely as a side effect of Terra, too), further damaging trust in the industry. Both events led to stricter regulations and made investors more cautious.
That’s the thing with Black Swan Events. They’re often devastating enough to make everyone learn from previous mistakes and make efforts (and laws) so that they don’t happen ever again. The European Union, for instance, banned algorithmic stablecoins after the Terra episode.
Future Black Swans in Crypto?
While price predictions are never fully reliable, Black Swan events are even more unpredictable. Analysts can study markets and news, forming their own theories and guesses, but nothing is certain—no one can truly see the future. However, some preventive measures are always available.

To protect themselves from Black Swan Events, crypto investors should diversify their portfolios and avoid putting all their funds into one asset. Holding a mix of cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and even traditional assets can reduce risks during market crashes. Choosing coins that have survived past crises and proven their resilience is also crucial. Long-established projects with strong fundamentals and active development are more likely to withstand unexpected downturns.
Additionally, investors should practice risk management by setting stop-loss orders while engaging in speculative trading, and only investing what they can afford to lose. Keeping funds in secure non-custodial wallets instead of exchanges can also prevent losses in case of hacks or bankruptcies. Staying informed about market trends and regulatory changes can help users react quickly and make better financial decisions.
It’s also important to remember that cryptocurrencies weren’t created just for speculation. The real value lies in their utility and autonomy. Instead of chasing price movements, users should focus on projects that offer them some real-world benefits. For example, Obyte has provided a resilient and fully decentralized crypto ecosystem since 2016. Its DAG-based platform eliminates middlemen like miners and “validators” while enabling smart contracts, conditional payments, customized tokens, self-sovereign ID, textcoins, chatbots, and more, making it a strong choice for those looking for the most resilient crypto ecosystems.

Originally Published on Hackernoon
#BlackSwan #CryptoCautions #BearishAlert #CryptoCrashAlert #Obyte