qcp

📉 Bitcoin Drops Below $118K as Dollar Strengthens

Bitcoin traded at $117,564, slipping below the $118,000 mark after strong U.S. growth data gave a boost to the U.S. dollar.
$BTC

💵 The Dollar Index (DXY) jumped to 99.34, its highest since June 23, signaling renewed strength in the greenback.

⚠️ What’s the concern?
Traders have been betting heavily against the dollar (USD shorts). But now, with the dollar showing strength again, there's a risk of a "short squeeze" — which could push the dollar higher and hit markets like crypto, equities, and emerging markets.

🗣️ QCP Capital warns:
“Everyone expected a weak dollar in 2025, but after a 10% drop, we’re asking — how much lower can it go?”

📌 Bottom Line:
A stronger dollar = possible pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.

#Bitcoin #CryptoMarkets #DollarIndex #QCP #BTC

Key Takeaways:
✅ BTC back at $112K, ETH above $4,100 after last week’s sell-off.
📉 Heavy ETF outflows hit markets, but stabilization shows selling was tied to end-of-quarter liquidations.
📈 BTC closed September up 3%, fueling the “Uptober” narrative.
⚠️ Analysts caution: Bitcoin must break $115K decisively to confirm a sustained bullish trend.
Options Market Signals:
Derivatives market showing stabilization.
Bearish skew and open interest in BTC & ETH options are normalizing.
Traders regaining confidence as volatility eases.
🔮 Bottom Line: “Uptober” is still alive — but the key lies at $115K resistance. A breakout could ignite the next leg higher, while failure risks stalling the rally.
#BTC #CryptoMarkets #Uptober #QCP
$BTC

Bitcoin’s recent consolidation around the $100,000 mark has taken a darker turn, with new on-chain and derivative data suggesting the market may be sliding into an “extremely bearish” phase. According to analysts at #QCP Capital, momentum indicators now point to weakening structural support, with potential downside targets extending as low as $91,000 — or even $72,000 if critical levels fail to hold. The assessment, published in QCP’s Asia Morning Briefing, paints a cautious picture heading into November as risk appetite across global markets fades and liquidity thins across crypto exchanges.

The QCP note highlights that funding rates, perpetual futures open interest, and long-liquidation ratios have all begun to resemble the early stages of deeper corrective phases seen in previous cycles. The report notes that traders have shifted sharply from aggressive call buying to defensive positioning, particularly in downside protection structures that target $90,000 and below. Implied volatility, which had cooled through most of October, has begun to creep upward again — a sign that option traders are paying more to hedge against potential sharp moves.

Adding to the tension, Bitcoin’s price has struggled to regain upside momentum since failing to hold above $105,000 earlier in the week. Spot market activity has fallen roughly 30% compared to October’s highs, suggesting reduced conviction among both retail and institutional traders. According to Glassnode data, exchange inflows from long-term holders have increased for three consecutive weeks, hinting that some older wallets may be distributing into strength rather than accumulating.

However, Glassnode’s interpretation of the same data is slightly more nuanced. The analytics firm notes that while short-term traders are exiting positions and long-term holders are reducing exposure, the overall on-chain structure more closely resembles a mid-cycle correction than a full capitulation event. In other words, the selling is significant, but it’s not yet panic. Glassnode points out that spending from dormant coins remains modest relative to previous major cycle tops, and exchange reserves have not spiked in a way consistent with widespread fear.

Still, market psychology appears fragile. Bitcoin’s correlation with equity markets has tightened again in November, and with Wall Street entering another phase of risk-off sentiment, crypto has not been spared. The Nikkei 225 opened lower on Friday, mirroring declines across Asia-Pacific markets following a tech-led selloff in the U.S. AI-related stocks — including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Palantir — were among the hardest hit, dragging sentiment across broader indices. Investors in the region are also waiting for China’s upcoming trade data, which is expected to confirm weaker export and import growth. Together, these macro pressures have created a cautious mood across all risk assets, with traders scaling back leveraged positions.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin now faces a crucial support zone between $95,000 and $97,000 — a level that has served as both resistance and support multiple times this year. If that band holds, analysts expect consolidation and possible recovery toward $105,000–$110,000 over the next few weeks. But if it breaks decisively, QCP warns that price action could unwind quickly, potentially testing $91,000 first and $72,000 in a worst-case scenario. These levels correspond to Fibonacci retracements from the late 2024 breakout and align with previous structural supports formed before Bitcoin’s surge past six figures.

There’s also evidence that institutional traders are adjusting strategies. Several large market makers have begun rebalancing their books, reducing exposure to perpetual contracts and moving liquidity toward stablecoin-denominated products. Meanwhile, CME futures open interest dropped 11% week-on-week, suggesting a degree of deleveraging among professional participants. Retail data from Binance and OKX shows a similar story — long/short ratios have tilted bearish for the first time in over two months, with funding rates on perpetuals turning negative on Thursday.

Despite the bearish sentiment, some analysts still frame this as a natural cooling-off after a year of sustained strength. Bitcoin remains up nearly 60% year-to-date, outperforming most equities and commodities, and its structural position in institutional portfolios remains intact. Analysts at Glassnode argue that the current phase looks more like the “mid-cycle digestion” that historically follows halving rallies. They point out that during previous bull markets, Bitcoin often saw 25–35% corrections before resuming its upward trajectory.

In broader context, macro conditions continue to shape sentiment. With the Federal Reserve maintaining a tight monetary stance and global growth data showing signs of slowing, investors have little incentive to chase risk assets higher in the short term. The Asia-Pacific equity weakness on Friday reflects that mood. As China’s trade data looms and Japan’s yen volatility persists, regional liquidity conditions could influence crypto price action more directly, particularly during Asia trading hours when Bitcoin’s volume dominance tends to spike.

For now, traders are watching the $95,000 zone closely. A decisive breakdown below could confirm QCP’s “extremely bearish” call, while a rebound would strengthen Glassnode’s case that this is merely a mid-cycle correction. Either way, volatility appears ready to return after weeks of sideways drift. The broader takeaway is that even as long-term adoption trends remain intact, the short-term market tone has shifted decisively toward defense.

Bitcoin’s next few days will likely decide whether this phase is remembered as a healthy reset or the start of a deeper downturn. For a market that’s built on momentum and conviction, how traders respond to this uncertainty may matter as much as the numbers themselves.
$BTC #Bitcoin #Bearish

Bitcoin (BTC) bounced off early Asian session lows, providing support for altcoins like ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), and solana (SOL). Liquidity continues to flow between sectors — today it’s shifting from privacy coins to smaller #project 's, including ASTER, RENDER, SKY and MNT, which have jumped 7%.

While the action feels typical, the real story lies in the demand pivot highlighted by the “apparent demand” metric. This tracks bitcoin’s issuance against the behavior of long-term holders to gauge net cumulative demand over the past 30 days.

The metric recently flipped positive, soaring to a three-month high of 5,252 BTC, about $549 million, according to Capriole Investments. This increase is echoed by the $523 million net inflow into U.S.-listed bitcoin spot ETFs on Tuesday, the most in over a month, according to SoSoValue data.

Still, traders remain cautious on the derivatives side. On Deribit, a preferred venue for sophisticated traders, annualized funding rates remain well below the 2025 average of 5.9%. Ether shows a similar pattern, complemented by muted stablecoin lending rates on Aave, signaling subdued risk appetite, according to FRNT Financial.

Market participants may be growing weary of the drawn-out U.S. government shutdown. As Singapore-based QCP Capital put it: “The Senate’s stopgap bill extending funding through January 30 removes near-term tail risk but does nothing to resolve the underlying fiscal gridlock — a classic ‘kick-the-can’ fix.”

And don't forget, the House has yet to approve the measure. Until it does, the absence of economic data leaves traders in limbo.

According to #QCP , private data releases, such as the ADP payrolls and NFIB Index, carry extra weight, "both pointing to softer labor conditions and cautious business sentiment."

"For the #Fed , this reinforces the 'easing with caution' narrative heading into the Dec FOMC (Dec 9–10)," the firm said.

In traditional markets, #GOLD 's bounce has stalled at around $4,130 per ounce amid a renewed spike in the MOVE index, which measures the 30-day expected volatility in the Treasury notes. Increased volatility in the Treasury market typically weighs on gold and risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Stay alert!

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