riskassetradar

🇺🇸 U.S. Macro Reality Check
There’s a lot of noise out there right now, so let’s ground this in what’s actually happening.
Inflation is cooling, but it’s not below 2%.
The latest CPI prints are still above the Fed’s target, even if the trend is clearly moving in the right direction. Anyone claiming sub‑2% inflation is jumping the gun.
The labor market, though, is definitely losing steam.
Hiring is slowing, job openings have been revised down, and the overall momentum just isn’t what it was a few months ago. This is where the real pressure on the Fed is coming from.
So the Fed’s dilemma isn’t “inflation is too low.”
It’s inflation drifting down while the labor market weakens faster than expected.
That combination forces a tough choice:
• Stay tight and risk pushing the economy into a deeper slowdown
• Cut too late and risk something breaking in the system
Markets aren’t waiting for the Fed to make up its mind.
Liquidity expectations are already creeping higher, and risk assets are starting to price in the shift.
Bottom line:
The pivot narrative is building — just for different reasons than the headlines suggest.
#FedWatch #InflationReality #RateCutPressure #LiquidityShift #RiskAssetRadar
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