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🇯🇵 Japan Poised for a Historic Shift — BOJ Rate Hike in Focus

Japan may be on the verge of a major monetary turning point. All eyes are on the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on December 18–19, 2025, where markets are increasingly pricing in the first interest-rate hike since January, ending an 11-month pause.

Consensus expectations point to a 25 bps hike, lifting the policy rate from 0.50% to 0.75%. Surveys now show nearly 90% of economists expect a December move, with projections suggesting rates could reach 1.0% or higher by late 2026 if inflation and wage growth remain firm.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signaled that persistent inflation, rising long-term yields, and corporate wage dynamics are key factors shaping the decision. Yen volatility has also become harder to ignore, adding pressure for policy normalization.

Key Details

• Decision timing: End of BOJ meeting — Dec 19 (JST)

• Expected move: +25 bps to 0.75%

• Drivers: Sticky inflation, rising yields, wage momentum, FX stability

This would mark a rare and meaningful policy pivot for Japan after years of ultra-loose monetary conditions. If confirmed, markets should brace for JPY strength, bond market pressure, and equity sector rotation, with ripple effects across global assets.

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AAVE is trying to break out and the data behind it looks bullish
AAVE has been holding up well even while the broader crypto rally cooled off. Price is hovering around 173 and still showing strength compared to many other coins.
What makes this interesting is not just the price move. The on chain and derivatives signals are also leaning bullish, which often matters before a real breakout happens.
Why traders are watching AAVE right now
On chain data is showing buy side dominance and cooling conditions in the spot market. That usually means selling pressure is not as aggressive and buyers are absorbing supply.
At the same time, futures activity is showing large whale sized orders. When bigger players start building positions, it can support a stronger move.
Derivatives data also supports the bullish case. The OI weighted funding rate has turned positive and is around 0.0070 percent, meaning longs are paying shorts. This is often seen when the market expects price to move higher.
Key levels to watch
AAVE is still trading inside a falling channel on the 4 hour chart, so technically it is not a full trend reversal yet. But if it breaks out of that channel, bulls can take control fast.
Important resistance area is around 176 to 177, near the 50 day EMA at 176.99. A clean close above that zone can open the door for a move toward 200, which is a major psychological level.
If momentum continues, the bigger technical target from the channel breakout can point toward 267.68.
Momentum indicators are supportive
RSI on the 4 hour chart is around 64, which shows bullish momentum is building but not fully overbought yet.
MACD is also showing a bullish crossover with rising histogram bars, which adds more confidence for buyers.
Bear case and risk levels
If AAVE fails to close above the 176 resistance area, price could slide back toward the December 31 low near 146.63.
Bulls need to defend the weekly support around 158.27 to keep the upside structure alive.
Conclusion
AAVE is not fully confirmed yet, but the setup is getting stronger. If AAVE closes above 176 to 177, the 200 zone becomes a realistic short term target. If it rejects again, watch 158 and 146 for support.
Not financial advice. Always manage risk.
Do you think AAVE breaks 200 next, or do we get one more dip first

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