نشر
Mars_And_Venus
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Live Analysis of BTC/USDT Perpetual Futures (1D Timeframe)
1. Price Action & Wyckoff (Effort vs. Result)
1. Effort = Result Principle: Recently, price reached the 106,000–107,000 USDT resistance zone while volume decreased, suggesting waning buying pressure and a potential corrective move.
2. According to Binance data (March 2025), after an accumulation phase the market entered a markup phase with a clear Sign of Strength (SOS) and gradually rising volume.
2. ICT and Smart Money Concepts
1. Supply and Demand Zones: The 106–107 k zone is confirmed as a strong supply area.
2. Market Structure: On the daily timeframe, a Lower High has formed, indicating a likely retracement toward 100–102 k.
3. Fundamental Analysis
1. Open Interest & Volume: Open interest is elevated, but 24-hour trading volume has declined, implying that professional traders are awaiting a clearer directional signal.
2. Funding Rate: Slightly positive, indicating long bias and the risk of a funding-rate-induced reversal.
4. Volume Profile & Order Flow
1. Point of Control (POC): The highest-volume traded area lies between 103–105 k.
2. Order Flow: Large sell orders are clustered around 106–107 k, increasing the likelihood of a downturn from that zone.
Trade Recommendations (Swing / Intraday)
Strategy Entry Zone Target (TP) Stop Loss (SL) R/R Ratio
Conservative Short at 106,000–106,500 102,500 107,200 (+150 pts) ~1:2
Aggressive Long at 103,000–103,500 107,000–107,500 102,000 (below VAL) ~1:3
▶️ Most Probable Path Next Few Days
1. Correction from the supply zone (106–107 k) down to 102–103 k.
2. Rebound from 102–103 k to retest the supply zone.
Suggested Sequence:
1. Enter a short position at 106–107 k, targeting 102.5 k with SL above 107.2 k.
2. If price falls to 103–102 k, open a long reversal trade targeting 107 k, with SL below 102 k.
Key Concepts Defined
• Wyckoff Phases: After markup, a markdown phase often follows.
• SOS (Sign of Strength): A Wyckoff concept indicating strong buying interest.
• Lower High: In ICT/SMC, a swing high lower than the previous high signals bearish structure.
• POC (Point of Control): Volume Profile level with the most traded volume.
• VAL (Value Area Low): Lower boundary of the 70 % volume range.
Execution Notes
• Use precise stop-loss placement.
• Manage margin if volatility spikes.
• Consider a trailing stop to lock in profits.
Recommended Tools
• Order Flow & Volume Clusters: Bookmap or Cignals for detailed flow visualization.
Conclusion
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
A conservative short at 106–107 k offers a favorable risk/reward targeting 102.5 k. Subsequently, a long reversal at 103–102 k toward 107 k also presents a high-probability setup. This combined Wyckoff, ICT, and Volume Profile strategy maximizes success likelihood.
1. Effort = Result Principle: Recently, price reached the 106,000–107,000 USDT resistance zone while volume decreased, suggesting waning buying pressure and a potential corrective move.
2. According to Binance data (March 2025), after an accumulation phase the market entered a markup phase with a clear Sign of Strength (SOS) and gradually rising volume.
2. ICT and Smart Money Concepts
1. Supply and Demand Zones: The 106–107 k zone is confirmed as a strong supply area.
2. Market Structure: On the daily timeframe, a Lower High has formed, indicating a likely retracement toward 100–102 k.
3. Fundamental Analysis
1. Open Interest & Volume: Open interest is elevated, but 24-hour trading volume has declined, implying that professional traders are awaiting a clearer directional signal.
2. Funding Rate: Slightly positive, indicating long bias and the risk of a funding-rate-induced reversal.
4. Volume Profile & Order Flow
1. Point of Control (POC): The highest-volume traded area lies between 103–105 k.
2. Order Flow: Large sell orders are clustered around 106–107 k, increasing the likelihood of a downturn from that zone.
Trade Recommendations (Swing / Intraday)
Strategy Entry Zone Target (TP) Stop Loss (SL) R/R Ratio
Conservative Short at 106,000–106,500 102,500 107,200 (+150 pts) ~1:2
Aggressive Long at 103,000–103,500 107,000–107,500 102,000 (below VAL) ~1:3
▶️ Most Probable Path Next Few Days
1. Correction from the supply zone (106–107 k) down to 102–103 k.
2. Rebound from 102–103 k to retest the supply zone.
Suggested Sequence:
1. Enter a short position at 106–107 k, targeting 102.5 k with SL above 107.2 k.
2. If price falls to 103–102 k, open a long reversal trade targeting 107 k, with SL below 102 k.
Key Concepts Defined
• Wyckoff Phases: After markup, a markdown phase often follows.
• SOS (Sign of Strength): A Wyckoff concept indicating strong buying interest.
• Lower High: In ICT/SMC, a swing high lower than the previous high signals bearish structure.
• POC (Point of Control): Volume Profile level with the most traded volume.
• VAL (Value Area Low): Lower boundary of the 70 % volume range.
Execution Notes
• Use precise stop-loss placement.
• Manage margin if volatility spikes.
• Consider a trailing stop to lock in profits.
Recommended Tools
• Order Flow & Volume Clusters: Bookmap or Cignals for detailed flow visualization.
Conclusion
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
A conservative short at 106–107 k offers a favorable risk/reward targeting 102.5 k. Subsequently, a long reversal at 103–102 k toward 107 k also presents a high-probability setup. This combined Wyckoff, ICT, and Volume Profile strategy maximizes success likelihood.
إخلاء المسؤولية: تتضمن آراء أطراف خارجية. ليست نصيحةً مالية. يُمكن أن تحتوي على مُحتوى مُمول. اطلع على الشروط والأحكام.
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