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Trump–Putin Alaska Summit: A Turning Point?

For the first time in almost ten years, Putin is set to step onto U.S. soil, meeting Trump in Alaska for high-level talks. While the world watches closely, hopes for a quick ceasefire in Ukraine remain uncertain — Trump himself has hinted more negotiations will be needed before any breakthrough.

Why It Matters

Ending the war could reshape the global economic and geopolitical landscape. Russia’s battlefield gains come with mounting economic pressure, and peace would benefit not only Moscow and Kyiv but also the EU. Lower oil prices would be a natural side effect as Russian crude reenters the market, creating more winners than losers.

What’s Ahead

Trump’s tone has shifted — he’s gone from placing blame on Ukraine’s leadership to openly criticizing Putin. European allies were reassured by his commitment to punish Russia if talks fail, though they were unsettled by his suggestion of potential territorial concessions.

Putin is likely to pitch economic and defense deals while avoiding a full stop to military operations. Any kind of ceasefire could lift markets and global sentiment, but ongoing stalemates might dampen that optimism.

Betting markets currently price in a 35% chance of a truce — better than earlier this summer but still far from certain.

$TRUMP 9.05 ▼ 1.3%

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