A growing set of macro indicators is flashing warning signs across the U.S. economy. While no single data point confirms a recession on its own, the combined picture is becoming harder to ignore. Beneath the surface calm of headline growth figures, stress is building in labor markets, housing, credit, and inflation — the same areas that historically weaken late in the economic cycle.
The labor market is sending the clearest early signal. In January 2026, U.S. employers announced 108,435 layoffs, the highest January total since 2009, a period firmly associated with recession. This magnitude goes well beyond routine seasonal restructuring and instead suggests companies are actively preparing for slower growth. Weekly initial jobless claims have also turned higher, recently jumping to 231,000 and exceeding expectations, indicating that layoffs are beginning to accelerate.
At the same time, job openings are falling sharply. The latest JOLTS data shows openings declining to roughly 6.54 million, the lowest level since 2020. When layoffs rise while openings fall, displaced workers face fewer opportunities to re-enter the workforce. That dynamic marks a meaningful deterioration in labor conditions, not just temporary noise.
Hiring behavior reinforces this shift. Companies are not only reducing headcount, they are also pulling back on expansion plans.