This Fed data is a reality check! While the market is hoping for a pivot, the 5.4% chance of no cuts at all is a risk most retail traders are ignoring. I’m currently shifting my strategy to spot accumulation of AI-gems, as they tend to decouple during macro uncertainty. Would love to know your thoughts on the $DXY correlation for the coming months!

According to CME FedWatch data, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates at all by the end of 2026 stands at 5.4%. According to BlockBeats, there is a 21.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut, a 32.5% chance of a 50 basis point reduction, a 25.9% likelihood of a 75 basis point cut, an 11.7% probability of a 100 basis point decrease, and a 3% chance of a 125 basis point reduction.

Additionally, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting in March is 23.2%.