Are Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycles Dead — or Just Growing Up?

In early February 2026, Bitcoin reminded everyone—again—that it doesn’t care about comfort narratives.

After plunging to nearly $60,000 on February 5, the market spiraled into panic. Liquidations piled up. Social feeds filled with “cycle is over” posts. Then, just as quickly, Bitcoin rebounded above $68,000, forcing the same crowd to ask a familiar question:

Was that the death of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle… or proof it’s still very much alive?

For more than a decade, Bitcoin’s price behavior has followed a remarkably consistent rhythm. Accumulation. Breakout. Euphoria. Collapse. Reset.۔ Each phase roughly aligned with one structural event: the halving, when Bitcoin’s block rewards are cut in half every four years.

But 2026 isn’t 2016. Or 2020.

This market is heavier, more institutional, and far more interconnected with global finance. Spot ETFs, sovereign interest, hedge funds, and macro liquidity now sit alongside miners and retail traders. That evolution has many analysts arguing that the old cycle model is obsolete.

Others strongly disagree.

So which is it? Are the cycles dead—or just misunderstood? Why the Four-Year Cycle Ever Worked

The original cycle theory wasn’t mystical. It was mechanical.

Each halving reduced new Bitcoin supply. At the same time, demand either stayed constant or increased. Over time, that supply shock created upward pressure on price. Eventually, speculation took over, leverage expanded, and the market overheated. A brutal drawdown followed, flushing excess and resetting expectations.

This pattern repeated after:

2012 → 2013

2016 → 2017

2020 → 2021

Each time, the same storyline played out:

Long accumulation phases nobody cared about

Explosive bull runs everyone chased

Violent crashes everyone swore were “different this time”

The consistency wasn’t perfect.but it was close enough to shape an entire generation of Bitcoin investing. The skeptics make valid points.Bitcoin is no longer a fringe experiment. Today, it trades alongside equities