$BTC Hidden Edge: Hard to Trade but Powerful to Hold (3/3)
People say “you can’t predict Bitcoin.”
That’s half true and very bullish.
The key metric is the Hurst exponent (H), which measures market memory:
H = 0.5 → random walk
H > 0.5 → persistence (trends tend to continue)
H < 0.5 → mean reversion (moves tend to fade)
Bitcoin’s rolling 120-day Hurst has ranged from ~0.36 to ~0.91 in my tests.
That means the game keeps changing:
trend regime, chop regime, near-random regime.
I tested momentum, mean-reversion, and random strategies across 2,000+ days:
Momentum hit rate: 52–55%
Mean reversion: 45–48%
Random: ~50%
Short-term edge is thin and unstable.
Most people are trying to force consistency in a regime-shifting market.
Zoom out.
Across ~17 years, Bitcoin’s long-run power-law fit is around R² ≈ 0.96 (in-sample).
That does not mean perfect day-to-day prediction.
It means the long-horizon structure has been strong.
With full-sample Hurst around ~0.57–0.61, the picture is consistent: persistence dominates over longer windows.
What the data suggests on horizon (approximate):
• <3 months: mostly regime noise
• 3–12 months: mixed, path-dependent
• 12–18+ months: trend signal starts to dominate
• Multi-year (3+ years): strongest structural predictability
The same math that makes short-term trading hard is the math that statistically supports long-term holding.
(This is how my predictions are made)