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Topic:MicroStrategy Clarifies Breaking Point What are the odds that BTC reaches $8k?
I think the odds are quite high from my interpretation of Elliott wave theory.
I count 2021 as the top of the 1st macro impulse wave and after is an expanded or running flat. It kept getting rejected at the 1.382 retracement, which is a classic extreme level for those most deceptive flats. The two peaks from the 73K high were subwaves 3 and a lower 5. This made it easy to rule out the 2021 flat because it looked like a complex correction which would negate it. I've shown people and no one took it seriously. I was and am still open to being wrong, but I've yet to see a move that disproves my interpretation.
If I'm right then we are in wave 1 or 2 of the macro wave C. I expect wave 3 to reach about 30K and meet the linear requirement of wave C, but BTC is a log chart asset and the minimum is much lower, which I expect wave C to hit.
I've thought Strategy would be used as a main bear narrative since early 2023. They kept buying the highs. Don't forget that they sold BTC in Dec 2022 and after rebought and made out it was for tax reasons. So, no one can say it won't sell as it has.
I think the bottom of the bear will end this fear story. Will the btc wealth get redistributed or not is the question.
The most interesting and important chart for btc in my opinion is the XAUBTC chart, gold priced in BTC. It made it easy to predict a bearish BTC and it is just getting started.
Fun fact: Add a fib retracement to the bottom price ever and then to the peak just before the ath and look at the golden ratio... 1 dollar, then it got obfiscated with a higher high