The U.S. dollar is likely to remain volatile ahead of the January non-farm payrolls (NFP) release, as markets brace for what could be the largest annual downward revision to U.S. employment data on record, according to Maybank.
In a research note cited by Jin10, Maybank said the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has recently found near-term support, with some short positions being modestly unwound as investors adopt a cautious stance before the data release. This has helped stabilize the dollar despite weaker-than-expected U.S. December retail sales, which showed zero month-on-month growth.
Markets focus on jobs data and revisions
Market attention is now firmly on January’s U.S. labor report. Maybank expects non-farm payrolls to rise by around 65,000 jobs, compared with roughly 50,000 in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.4%.
More critically, the bank highlighted expectations for a 2025 annual benchmark revision of about -825,000 jobs, a figure that would mark the largest downward revision in U.S. payroll history. Maybank said this looming adjustment has been a key factor weighing on the dollar in recent sessions, as investors reassess the underlying strength of the U.S. labor market.
Dollar likely to consolidate before release
Despite elevated volatility earlier in the week, Maybank expects the dollar to trade in a consolidative range ahead of the NFP release, as markets await confirmation from the labor data.