🚨 THE MARKET IS WARNING US
Look at Japan’s government bond yields right now:
10-Year: 2.24%
20-Year: 3.10%
30-Year: 3.51%
40-Year: 3.73%
This is NOT normal for Japan.
Japan is the world’s biggest lender country, with about $3.7 trillion invested outside its borders.
Now here’s the big part:
Swap markets are pricing about an 80% chance that Japan will raise interest rates to 1.00% by April.
Read that again.
Japan at 1.00% means the era of super cheap Japanese money is ending.
For many years, investors borrowed cheap Japanese yen and invested that money into:
– U.S. stocks
– U.S. bonds
– Tech
– Crypto
This is called the “yen carry trade.”
If Japan raises rates, borrowing yen becomes more expensive. That means less easy money flowing into global markets.
And Japan is not small.
If even a small part of that $3.7 trillion comes back to Japan, it means selling assets somewhere else.
Now think about this:
China has already reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings.
If Japan also starts bringing money home, even slowly, it could put real pressure on the dollar system.
When the biggest countries stop funding U.S. markets the same way, prices must adjust.
That’s why bonds move first.
Not because of small rate talk —
but because trillions of dollars may change where they are invested.
When liquidity drops, risky assets stop behaving normally.
This is serious.
I’m watching this closely into April. Big market changes often start quietly in bonds — long before crypto traders notice.
I’ve studied macro for 10 years and have called many major tops, including the October BTC all-time high.
