#usd $USDC

Analysis of the "Trump Case" Impact

​The $140 Billion Refund Risk: The sharpest decline in the curve occurred as the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) began deliberations on the legality of the administration’s IEEPA tariffs. Markets are pricing in the risk that a ruling against the President would force the U.S. government to refund over $140 billion to businesses. This potential massive hit to the federal budget has weakened investor confidence in the dollar.

​Pressure on the Federal Reserve: The recent slide in January 2026 (down to approximately $96.97 today) is also linked to the administration's public pressure on the Federal Reserve. Legal and political efforts to influence interest rates have led to fears of "political inflation," which historically devalues the currency.

​Volatility in Early 2026: While there was a brief "dead cat bounce" in early February following stronger-than-expected jobs data, the overall trend remains bearish. The dollar has dropped roughly 10% from its 2025 highs, reflecting global concerns over the legal stability of U.S. trade policy.#USDT