Right now, BTC is like a big fish that has successfully jumped over the 70,000 shallow area and even surpassed the previous high. It looks strong. But be careful, it just made a sharp move at 70,100, like a fish suddenly thrashing its tail and swimming back, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. This is a warning sign. If this high isn’t broken, a pullback is very likely.

The 70,000 level and the upper boundary of the flag pattern are like a net in the fish pond—either they hold the fish back together or get broken through together. If the fish falls back into the flag pattern and oscillates, there’s still a chance to push higher; but if this net is completely broken, we need to watch the weed area around 69,300. If that doesn’t hold, it could drop to the riverbed between 68,668 and 68,348. Once it breaks below 68,348, this bullish trend is over and the pullback officially begins.

The only way for this fish to keep swimming forward smoothly is if it stays above the 70,000 upper boundary. For trading, aggressive traders can wait for a volume breakout above 70,868 before chasing longs; if it breaks below 70,004 and fails to recover on a pullback, you can short, but remember to tighten your fishing line (stop loss).

Also, on the hourly chart, this fish’s triple jump is losing steam—the third jump is clearly weaker than the first two, showing it’s struggling to swim. Plus, it’s the weekend with no new bait (positive news), so be extra cautious of a bull trap trying to catch the fish above. Don’t get carried away by the rally.