The crypto market’s been on a wild ride lately. It's been down more than 30% in just three months and it’s putting serious heat on one of last year’s hottest trends: crypto treasury firms (or digital asset treasuries, DATs).
These companies basically raise money through different means such as stock sales, debt, and the likes and then throw it straight into Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, you name it. In the bull run, it looked like a brilliant idea: borrow cheap, buy big, watch the value skyrocket. But what about now? With prices sliding hard, a lot of them are sitting on losses that make their balance sheets look ugly.
So the big question for 2026 is: Can this model survive the squeeze?
Prediction #1: Forced Selling Is Coming
Some of these firms are about to hit the wall. Debt payments are looming, refinancing is drying up, and margin calls don’t wait politely. When that happens, selling becomes unavoidable - and forced selling in crypto is brutal. Prices drop, which triggers more liquidations, which drops prices further. It’s a vicious loop.
Strategy (MSTR), the OG in this space, is still clinging to its “never sell” mantra. Michael Saylor’s crew insists Bitcoin is untouchable, even as their market cap dips below the value of their holdings.
Mara Holdings (MARA) looks less stubborn. On-chain data shows nearly 1,400 BTC moving toward exchanges—a classic “we’re getting ready to sell” signal.
BitMine Immersion (BMNR) is deep in Ethereum, but also deep in losses—about $7.5 billion on paper. They’ve been diluting shareholders just to stay afloat, and while they keep buying ETH, confidence cracks fast when prices stay low.
Bottom line: some will hold, some will fold. But the more that fold, the more pressure it puts on crypto prices across the board.
Prediction #2: ETFs Are About to Eat Their Lunch
Here’s the other squeeze: ETFs.
Treasury firms and ETFs both give investors crypto exposure without the hassle of wallets or exchanges. But ETFs are cleaner—no debt drama, no dilution, no corporate baggage. And regulators are catching up fast. The SEC has already approved altcoin ETFs, limited-leverage ETFs, and staking ETFs are expected this year.
Now that is huge. Why gamble on a risky treasury firm when you can buy a simple ETF that does the same thing, with less risk and even staking yield? Institutions especially will flock to the safer option. That makes it harder for treasury firms to raise money or justify their existence.
The Big Picture
2026 is shaping up as a survival test. The firms with strong balance sheets and true conviction might hang on. But what about the rest? They’ll be forced to sell, restructure, or fade out as ETFs take center stage.
Crypto’s still unpredictable, but one thing’s very clear: the way companies hold digital assets on their books is about to change. Watch the on-chain movements and ETF approvals - they’ll tell the story before the headlines do.
Takeaway: Crypto treasuries were the darlings of the bull run. Now they’re staring down debt, sell-offs, and ETF competition. Survival isn’t guaranteed.