Chase Guo, a former business development executive at Binance, has made a bold prediction: Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high (ATH) in 2026 —but not for the reasons most market participants expect.
Speaking in a recent interview, the ex-Binance BD argued that the next major Bitcoin breakout will not be driven primarily by the halving cycle, retail euphoria, or macroeconomic tailwinds.
Liquidity Engineering — Not Hype — Could Drive Bitcoin’s 2026 Breakout
Instead, he believes the catalyst will come from liquidity positioning and structural dynamics within the crypto market itself.
“The reason will shock people,” Guo said, suggesting that market mechanics — rather than narrative conviction — will play the decisive role.
According to the former executive, crypto asset pricing is governed by three dominant forces:
Liquidity
Attention, and
Token holder structure (often referred to as “chip structure”).
These elements, he argued, determine price trends over short- to medium-term cycles ranging from seven days to three months.
In this framework, long-term fundamentals often take a back seat. Instead, capital inflows and outflows, social media momentum, and the distribution of tokens among holders shape volatility and trend direction.
While Bitcoin is often framed as a long-term store of value, the ex-Binance insider emphasized that even BTC remains heavily influenced by short-term liquidity flows and leveraged positioning.
Consensus Is the Target
A key component of his 2026 forecast centers on how large players interact with market consensus. When a majority of traders align around a bullish or bearish narrative, liquidity often clusters around predictable price levels.
According to the former BD, this creates opportunities for sophisticated market participants to engineer volatility.
“When consensus forms, it becomes a target,” he implied, pointing to historical episodes where crowded positioning led to rapid liquidations and sharp price reversals before new trends emerged.
In his view, the next Bitcoin ATH could emerge from such a liquidity squeeze scenario — where positioning, derivatives exposure, and capital rotation align to force price discovery beyond previous highs.
Market Cap Context
Bitcoin’s market capitalization currently sits at a fraction of gold’s, leaving room for expansion if global liquidity conditions remain supportive.
Even modest institutional or sovereign capital rotation, he suggested, could significantly impact price levels given BTC’s relatively fixed supply.
However, the expert cautions that the path to new highs would likely be volatile and counterintuitive. Rather than a smooth, narrative-driven rally, he anticipates sharp swings designed to shake out overleveraged traders before a sustained breakout.
A Structural, Not Emotional, Rally
Unlike prior cycles fueled by retail enthusiasm, meme-driven speculation, or halving hype, the predicted 2026 rally may stem from structural liquidity dynamics embedded in crypto’s maturing market infrastructure.
If Guo’s thesis proves correct, the next ATH won’t simply be a story of belief in digital gold. Rather, it will be a demonstration of how liquidity engineering and consensus positioning shape modern crypto markets.
Chase’s remarks gain additional weight when viewed against the backdrop of formal regulatory action and repeated public allegations.
His description of a market dominated by liquidity games and short-term incentives closely mirrors the US SEC’s claims in its 2023 lawsuit against Binance and founder Changpeng Zhao.
The complaint alleged wash trading, inflated volumes, and in-house market-making practices designed to shape price perception.
By framing manipulation as “open” and normalized, Chase’s comments appear less like isolated criticism and more like insider confirmation of systemic vulnerabilities.
Allegations surrounding the October 10, 2025, “10/10” flash crash further intensified scrutiny of Binance. Critics argue the exchange’s structure may have amplified cascading liquidations.
During the sharp selloff, which hit Bitcoin and major altcoins within minutes, users reported order delays, disabled functions, and unusual price wicks. These disruptions triggered forced liquidations at levels far above normal, echoing earlier accusations of engineered volatility.
Binance leadership, including Richard Teng and founder Changpeng Zhao, attributed the event to macro shocks and industry-wide leverage, denying manipulation.
However, the episode reinforced broader concerns — previously raised in actions by the US SEC that opaque market-making practices and concentrated liquidity can magnify systemic risk during periods of stress.