$BTC WARNING SIGNAL: LONG-TERM HOLDERS ARE DISTRIBUTING — HISTORY RHYMES
A quiet but critical shift is happening beneath Bitcoin’s price.
The Long-Term Holder (LTH) Net Position Change has flipped negative, meaning veteran holders are now net sellers, not accumulators. This isn’t noise — it’s one of the most reliable cycle-level signals we have.
Looking at the 365-day trend, LTH distribution has historically aligned with major market tops, when long-term conviction gives way to profit-taking. Shorter windows like 90-day and 30-day react faster, but they’re less precise — useful for timing, not for defining the cycle.
Here’s the key insight:
LTH accumulation does not guarantee upside (2018, 2020, 2022 proved that).
But when LTHs distribute, downside pressure tends to intensify.
Right now, that broader distribution trend is re-emerging.
This doesn’t mean price collapses tomorrow — but it does mean the risk profile is changing.
The market isn’t driven by hope.
It’s driven by who’s selling — and who’s left to buy.
Is this early-cycle rotation… or the first crack near a macro top?
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