Bitcoin is once again hovering near the upper Bear Band — a zone that has historically shown up late in market cycles, not early ones.
Price is still holding above long-term trend support, but momentum is flattening rather than expanding. In past cycles, this kind of structure didn’t lead to immediate continuation. It usually preceded extended distribution, where progress slows and risk quietly compresses.
If history rhymes, mean-reversion zones tend to emerge well below spot — levels that only matter if liquidity thins and demand weakens, not because of a sudden crash.
This isn’t a call for an immediate breakdown.
It’s a reminder that when BTC trades near cycle extremes, upside becomes harder to sustain while downside sensitivity increases.
Markets rarely turn loudly.
They tend to stall first.