Sunday Macro & Market Breakdown
This report is being released earlier than usual because the market is doing something it hasn’t managed to do in over a month — and the implications matter.
For the first time since multiple rejections, #bitcoin has pushed above the Silver Line, successfully held it on a retest, and printed a clear bullish confirmation. This level stopped price five times previously.
This is not random. It signals that short-term selling pressure has been absorbed and that price has room to expand higher before the larger trend resumes.
This is the exact scenario I have been waiting for.
After $BTC C reached my downside target near 80k, I openly stated that a relief expansion toward 97–107k was very much possible before continuation lower.
That is why I accumulated spot exposure around 85k, with a planned exit into that zone. Based on current structure, the market now appears ready to deliver that move.
Because of this, I am scaling into short positions between 97k and 107k, splitting capital into multiple entries rather than relying on a single price.
This approach allows me to build an optimal average if volatility increases. If trading capital were 10k, it would be divided into twelve separate orders across that range — disciplined, systematic, and emotion-free.
At the same time, I am maintaining my higher-range shorts between 115k and 125k. These orders are not predictions — they are preparation. If the market stretches that far, I want to be positioned, not reactive.
Despite the short-term strength, my macro bias remains firmly bearish. I continue to expect a move below 70k in the months ahead.
The Liquidity Warning No One Wants to Talk About
On New Year’s Day, the Federal Reserve injected $106 billion into the system via overnight repo operations.
This was not a small or routine action — it was the largest single-day repo usage on record.
The more important detail is why this is now possible.
In September 2025, quietly aligned with an FOMC press release, the Fed altered the structure of its standing repo facility. Previously capped at $500bn per day, the facility now allows up to $240bn per bank, with the cap applying collectively rather than daily.
This change was not made for comfort — it was made for contingency.
In simple terms: the Fed is preparing for a scenario where multiple large institutions require massive liquidity simultaneously.
History is clear on what happens when banks operate under stress — markets do not rally; they unwind.
This is the liquidity pressure I warned about months ago when I turned decisively bearish. What we are seeing now fits that framework precisely.
And yet, markets remain oddly complacent.
Insider Activity & Systemic Stress
While price pushes higher, insiders continue to sell aggressively. At the same time, stress in the metals market — particularly silver — is forcing pressure onto balance sheets, adding another layer of strain to the banking system.
Liquidity gaps do not announce themselves loudly. They appear silently, then break violently.
This is why I remain positioned the way I am.
I am constructive on gold and silver, deeply bearish on equities and Bitcoin, and actively building short exposure across both. If price trades into the 97–107k zone, I will deploy additional capital into shorts.
Once spot positions from 85k are closed, those profits will be recycled directly into bearish exposure.
This is not emotion.
This is not hope.
This is preparation.
The rally may continue — but the structure beneath it is fragile.
And when liquidity breaks, it always does so faster than most expect.
