BTC's 5-Day Streak Hides a Dangerous Truth $81K Is NOT the Bottom 🚨
This is a Macro Analysis Scenario (B) focusing on market structure, dominance, and on-chain data suggesting a relief rally, not a new cycle start. The tone must be profound and analytical.
BTC's 5-day run adding $100B feels good but the data screams relief rally, not cycle start 📉. Altcoins are pumping while BTC dominance sinks—a classic warning sign.
Whale wallets (100-1k BTC) are still dumping, the exact opposite of what happened during prior bottoms. Furthermore, apparent demand for $BTC is trending down, mirroring post-cycle top behavior.
Technically, we've seen this movie before; reclaiming the 50W EMA after a major drop often leads to a swift rejection, not a new ATH.
Upside exists—a run toward $102K-$104K near the 200D SMA is possible, mirroring past cycles. But that's the ceiling before the real downtrend resumes.
The macro kicker: ISM is at a 14-month low and falling. Major rallies historically require ISM above 50, which might not happen until 2026. Expect the true cycle bottom to align with ISM expansion and a new Fed chair in H2 2026.
#CryptoAnalysis #BTCMacro #OnChainData #MarketStructure 🧐
