$BTC Rallies — But Is the Bottom Confirmed?
Bitcoin is up 5 days this year, adding nearly $100B in market cap. While some believe $81K was the bottom, the data suggests caution.
🔹 In a true uptrend, BTC and dominance lead first. Right now, altcoins are leading and BTC dominance is falling — a typical relief rally signal.
🔹 Whales (100–1,000 BTC) are still net sellers, unlike previous cycle bottoms where they accumulated.
🔹 Bitcoin demand remains weak, a pattern seen after past cycle tops.
📈 $BTC can still push toward $102K–$104K near the 200D SMA, but historically, such rallies are often followed by renewed downside.
🔸 Macro remains a headwind: ISM is at a 14-month low, and major BTC rallies usually happen when ISM > 50 — likely not soon.
Conclusion: Upside is possible, but the cycle hasn’t flipped yet.
Trade the move, respect the data.
