https://update.10xresearch.com/p/false-signals-real-breakouts-why-bitcoin-s-next-move-won-t-come-from-macro-narratives

False Signals, Real Breakouts: Why Bitcoin’s Next Move Won’t Come From Macro Narratives

Markets love simple stories, but Bitcoin rarely follows them.

While U.S. equities benefit from powerful early-year seasonal flows, Bitcoin plays by a different rulebook.

Calendar effects fade, macro correlations break down, and the signals that actually matter tend to surface in market structure, technical resets, and real capital behavior.

As we enter 2026, many widely cited macro indicators are flashing confidence. History shows those are often the moments when conviction is highest, and signals are weakest.

The real question isn’t whether liquidity is rising.
It’s whether real capital is positioning for the next regime shift.

We break down what’s actually driving Bitcoin right now, and how we’re trading it, in today’s report.

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