Polymarket Settlement Controversy: Venezuela Invasion Bets
Prediction market platform Polymarket is facing significant backlash after refusing to settle wagers on whether the U.S. would invade Venezuela. Bettors had placed over $10.5M on contracts tied to a U.S. invasion by specified dates, but Polymarket ruled that a recent U.S. military action that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro did not meet its contract definition of an “invasion.” As a result, these markets remain unresolved and odds collapsed, triggering frustration from users who argue the event should have qualified for a payout. 
This dispute has renewed debate about how prediction markets define outcomes, the fairness of rule interpretation, and transparency in resolving geopolitical event markets. 
