Bitcoin (BTC) finally broke out of consolidation last week, breaking over $90,000. The dominant cryptocurrency went as high as $94,700 before a sharp rejection that has subsequently lowered prices to $90,000-$92,000. During this mini-consolidation, OnChain, a market analyst, found structural market weakness that suggests a bear market.
Bitcoin On-Chain Technical Indicators Paint Bear Picture OnChain writes in a CryptoQuant QuickTake that Bitcoin's weekly chart shows early structural deterioration, comparable to 2021–2022. The analyst uses price-based technical indicators and on-chain demand measures to corroborate this assumption and assess market conditions. Four Anchored VWAPs (2021 ATH, 2025 ATH, 3rd halving, and 4th halving), the SMA50, Realized Price – UTXO Age Bands (6-12 months), and Bitcoin Apparent Demand.
These indications on the Bitcoin weekly chart show price similarities in 2021/2022 and now. The chart below shows that Bitcoin trades below the average price since the previous all-time high (anchored VWAP), the SMA50, and the realized price of coins held for 6–12 months for the first time in Areas 1. In the last cycle, BTC went below all three levels, starting a wider weakening phase rather than a quick correction.
The anchoring VWAP to Bitcoin's latest halving supports Bitcoin for the second time in Areas 2, according to OnChain. BTC tried a mini-rebound in 2022 when the price decline halted, but all Areas 1 indications opposed it, resulting in a multi-month slump.
The market researcher said Areas 1 indications are around $98,000–$101,000, the next significant resistance level. This observed price movement comes as Bitcoin Apparent Demand crashes, indicating a lack of purchasing demand. OnChain finds another worrying similarity: Apparent Demand is entering negative territory, like 2021-2022.
