January 2026 – Macro Update:

Nickel surged more than 10% in a single day this week, driven by heavy short covering and rising supply concerns.

Copper also saw an aggressive rally, as tariff-related fears triggered stockpiling, pushing prices to a historic high above $13,387 per ton.

At the same time, markets are pricing in the possibility of Venezuela returning to the global oil supply chain, which is placing short-term pressure on oil prices.

If oil prices remain contained, headline CPI could decline by an additional 0.3%–0.5%, while core inflation could fall by 0.1%–0.2% in the February–March data.

For risk assets such as crypto and equities, this represents a meaningful macro tailwind, especially if the Federal Reserve turns more dovish.

Market Regime Shift:

The 2025 equity market was dominated by the “Magnificent Seven,” with the top 10 stocks contributing 53% of the S&P 500’s annual return.

Entering 2026, this regime is reversing. Capital is rotating away from crowded, high-valuation names toward defensive and undervalued assets.

A key example is China, where the Shanghai Composite has risen for 13 consecutive sessions, signaling a broader move toward value and mean reversion.

Crypto & Macro:

On January 6, Morgan Stanley filed with the SEC for both a Bitcoin Trust and a Solana Trust, marking the start of a potential Wall Street–led crypto ETF issuance race. This could introduce sustained passive buying over time.

Meanwhile, rising political instability in Latin America is strengthening Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-sovereign store of value, supported by expectations of more accommodative central banks.

Key Risk:

The U.S. government faces renewed shutdown risk around January 30, which may test overall market risk appetite.

Summary: Commodities are surging, market leadership is rotating away from Mag7 toward value, Wall Street is accelerating crypto adoption, lower oil prices may ease inflation, and January is shaping up to be a volatile macro month.

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