Risk Management Lecture #03
"I'm So Sure About This Trade..."
The More Sure You Are, The More Wrong You Probably Are.
The Trap: High Conviction Excuses:
"This Is A Sure Thing, I'll Go 5x Bigger"
→ Emotional Decision, Not Logical
"I've Done My Research, This Can't Fail"
→ Confirmation Bias At Work
"Everyone Is Bullish, Easy Money"
→ Herd Mentality = Danger Zone
"I'll Skip The Stop Loss This Time"
→ The Account Killer Sentence
The Reality:
Your "Conviction" Doesn't Change The Market's Probability.
The Pro Approach:
❌ Amateur: "High Conviction = Bigger Size" (5–20%)
✓ Professional: "Every Trade Gets Same Risk" (1%)
Professional Traders Risk Less When Confident, Because They Know Confidence ≠ Certainty.
Mindset Shift:
Old: "I'm Confident, I'll Risk More"
New: "I'm Confident, But I'll Stick To 1%"
Remember:
Confidence Is A Feeling
Probability Is Math
Risk Management Is Survival
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Tomorrow: Lecture #04: Stop Losses Are Not Optional