IEEPA, tariffs, and the binary scenario the market isn’t pricing in
The crypto market today is being driven by a macro grey swan that many are underestimating: the pending U.S. Supreme Court decision on IEEPA and tariffs.
This is not opinion. It’s a binary structure.
Scenario A (bullish):
Partial or full invalidation · Estimated ~$150B in refunds · Unscheduled liquidity injection · Risk-on environment favored (BTC, ETH, altcoins)
Scenario B (bearish):
Ratification · Stickier inflation · Stronger USD · Pressure on risk assets
The key point: the decision has not been released yet. That means maximum uncertainty, FOMO, and emotional positioning.
In environments like this, markets don’t move on narrative; they move on liquidity and timing.
Serious question (no hype): Is your portfolio prepared for both scenarios, or only one? Explain why.
If you trade crypto, comment with your base scenario and how you’re managing it.