🚨 TOMORROW COULD SHAKE MARKETS — AND MOST ARE MISREADING IT
The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on Trump-era tariffs.
Markets are pricing ~76% probability that they are ruled illegal.
Many think this is bullish.
It isn’t.
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📉 WHY THIS IS A REAL RISK EVENT
If tariffs are overturned:
• Hundreds of billions in potential refunds
• Trillions in affected investment flows
• A sudden fiscal shock to the U.S. Treasury
This isn’t stimulus. It’s a balance-sheet disruption.
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⚠️ MARKET IMPACT
• Treasury issuance & funding stress
• Liquidity pulled rapidly from risk assets
• Bonds, equities, and crypto can all reprice simultaneously
Short-term reaction ≠ long-term direction.
Volatility comes first.
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🧠 WHY THIS MATTERS
Macro events don’t move markets emotionally —
they move markets through liquidity and balance sheets.
I’ve spent 20+ years in macro, publicly calling multiple market tops and bottoms across cycles.
This is a structural risk event, not a headline trade.
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