📈 Why MERLUSDT Is a Valid LONG Candidate (4H – Binance Futures)
This setup is not about hope — it’s about structure, liquidity, and positioning.
1️⃣ Clear Range Structure + Range Low Rejection
MERLUSDT has been trading in a defined range:
Range high: ~0.263 – 0.268
Range low: ~0.227 – 0.231
Price just swept the range low at 0.23055 and immediately bounced back into the range.
👉 This is a classic liquidity sweep, trapping late shorts.
2️⃣ Strong Rejection Wick = Sellers Exhausted
The sharp rejection from 0.23055 shows:
Aggressive selling was absorbed
Buyers stepped in with conviction
Downside momentum failed to follow through
This is often how local bottoms form, not how trends continue lower.
3️⃣ Higher Low Relative to Prior Liquidity Sweep
Previous major sweep printed at 0.22784.
The latest sweep failed to make a significantly lower low, suggesting bearish momentum is weakening.
Market is no longer pushing price down efficiently — that’s a warning sign for shorts.
4️⃣ Mean Reversion Bias Inside the Range
Current price is back near the range midpoint (~0.255).
In a ranging market:
Shorts make money at the top
Longs make money at the bottom
Risk-to-reward favors longing after liquidity is taken, not chasing breakdowns.
5️⃣ Invalidation Is Clear (Low-Risk Setup)
A good trade is defined by where it’s wrong:
Invalidation: clean acceptance below 0.227
As long as price holds above that zone, long bias remains valid
Clear invalidation = controlled risk.
🧠 Conclusion
This is not a breakout trade — it’s a liquidity-based mean reversion long:
Range low swept ✅
Sellers trapped ✅
Weak follow-through to the downside ✅
Defined risk, upside back toward 0.263–0.268 ✅
When the market takes liquidity and snaps back, the move is often already decided.
Trade structure — not emotion. $MERL
