In a dramatic shift in market dynamics, Bitcoin (BTC) surged above $97,000 on January 14, 2026, as large-scale "whales" returned to the spot market with overwhelming force. After a grueling period of ETF-driven selling and a $6 billion "washout" that flushed out weak hands, the bull market has officially entered what analysts call its third expansion phase. Unlike previous rallies driven by fragile retail leverage, this latest move is built on a foundation of real capital and spot accumulation. With the $95,000 resistance level now flipped into support, the psychological $100,000 milestone has transitioned from a distant dream to a structural near-term target.

I. The Spot vs. Leverage Split: Why This Rally Is Different

The current surge is marked by a healthy divergence in trader behavior. Data from CryptoQuant shows that "Average Order Size" in the futures market remains relatively small, while spot market orders have spiked significantly. This indicates that while retail traders are still chasing the move using risky leverage, the actual "heavy lifting" and price discovery are being driven by whales and institutional funds buying physical Bitcoin. Historically, rallies led by spot demand are far more sustainable than those built on short-term liquidations, as spot buyers are less likely to panic-sell during minor volatility.

II. The $6 Billion ETF Reset: Flushing the "Weak Hands"

The road to $97,000 was paved by a necessary, albeit painful, correction. Earlier in the month, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a massive $6 billion outflow as late-entry investors those who bought near the October peaks exited their positions at a loss. This "washout" effectively reset market positioning, allowing Bitcoin to find firm support near the $86,000 ETF cost basis. Once the redemptions slowed and the "weak hands" were removed, whales seized the opportunity to rebuild their exposure at lower levels, creating a supply vacuum that has propelled the price back toward six-figure territory.

III. The Expansion Phase: Targeting the $100,000 Horizon

Bitcoin’s recovery from $84,400 to $97,000 followed a pattern of steady, incremental gains rather than a single speculative spike. This "step-ladder" movement suggests that supply is being systematically absorbed by strong hands. Having reclaimed the $95,000 mark a level that had capped every rally since early December control has shifted decisively back to the buyers. If institutional ETF flows remain positive (evidenced by a recent $760 million single-day inflow) and whales continue to lead on spot, the $100,000 level is no longer just a psychological barrier; it is the logical next destination for the current expansion phase.

IV. Essential Financial Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. While on-chain data and "Average Order Size" metrics currently signal a healthy bull market structure, Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset. The $100,000 price target is a technical projection based on current market expansion and is not a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can shift rapidly due to regulatory changes, macroeconomic shifts, or sudden institutional sell-offs. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Do you think the "Whale Spot Buy" is the final catalyst needed to push Bitcoin past $100,000 this week?