The Bear Case Against Crypto’s Bull Run
1) ETF hype is misleading
Most ETF inflows look like capital rotation (GBTC → cheaper ETFs), not fresh demand. Inflows are slowing, and the classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” risk is rising.
2) Macro is hostile
Crypto now trades like high-beta tech. Sticky inflation, higher-for-longer rates, ongoing QT, or a recession would drain liquidity and hit crypto first.
3) Regulation remains a threat
SEC pressure continues; a delayed/denied Ethereum ETF would hurt sentiment badly. EU MiCA raises costs and centralizes power. Global crackdowns limit adoption.
4) Retail euphoria = late signal
Memecoin mania and 2021-level social hype often mark cycle tops, not bottoms.
5) Structural risks persist
Energy/ESG issues, Ethereum scaling and fee spikes, stablecoin systemic risk, and frequent hacks remain unresolved.
The Short Case:
Markets are priced for perfection (ETFs + Fed pivot + friendly regulation). Any mix of slowing ETF flows, a hawkish Fed, regulatory shocks, or a major hack/de-peg could trigger a sharp unwind, amplified by leverage.
Technical:
A weekly BTC close below $60k risks breaking the bull structure, targeting mid-$40k or lower.
Bottom Line:
Bull narratives are crowded. Risks are underpriced. Sentiment can flip fast.
Not financial advice—risk assessment only.
