🌊 $RIVER Trade Setup: The Battle at the Moving Average 🌊
RIVER is currently in a high-volatility recovery phase. After a violent drop from 31.47 to 16.90, the price has snapped back and is currently fighting to reclaim the EMA(7) at 22.33.
📊 Technical Context:
The Bounce: The price found perfect dynamic support near the EMA(25) (Pink line at 21.13), bouncing strongly. This suggests bulls are still defending the trend.
Momentum: The MACD is currently bearish (DIF < DEA), but the histogram bars are shortening, hinting that the selling pressure is fading.
Indecision: The RSI(6) is at 54.06 (Neutral). The market is waiting for a trigger to choose a direction.
🟢 Long Setup (The Reclaim Play) — Favored Setup
Logic: The strong bounce from the lows confirms demand. If the price can close and hold above the EMA(7) (22.33), it confirms the correction is over for now.
Entry Zone: 22.80 - 23.20 (Confirming support above EMA 7).
Target 1 (TP): 26.50 (Mid-range resistance).
Target 2 (TP): 29.00 (Retest of 24h Highs).
Stop Loss (SL): 20.90 (Just below the EMA 25 support line).
Why: If it loses the EMA(25), the uptrend structure is broken.
🔴 Short Setup (The "Dead Cat Bounce" Failure)
Logic: If the current green candle fails to hold and closes back below 22.00, it signals that this recovery was just a "Dead Cat Bounce" before another leg down.
Entry Trigger: Rejection at 23.50 OR a close below 22.00.
Target 1 (TP): 19.50 (Recent consolidation zone).
Target 2 (TP): 17.00 (Retest of the recent Wick Low).
Stop Loss (SL): 24.50 (Above the current local resistance).
💡 Verdict:
The chart currently favors the Long Side because the price successfully defended the pink EMA(25) line. However, volatility is extreme (-18% daily drop).
Caution: Do not use high leverage. The range between the High (29.1) and Low (16.9) is massive, meaning standard stops can be easily hunted.
