🔻$KAITO Short-term bearish, potential oversold bounce
Timeframes: 1H & 4H
🔹 Market Structure
KAITO has broken its prior higher-low structure, printing a sharp impulsive sell-off from the 0.74 supply zone down to 0.54, confirming a bearish market structure shift (BMS). The move invalidated the previous consolidation range and flipped trend control firmly to sellers.
🔹 Key Support & Resistance
Support:
0.54 – 0.53 → Current demand / daily low & reaction zone
0.48 → HTF demand (last major base)
Resistance:
0.58 – 0.60 → Breakdown level / minor supply
0.64 – 0.67 → Strong supply & prior range high
0.74 → Major HTF rejection zone
🔹 Volume & Order Flow
High sell volume confirms panic distribution, likely driven by policy shock + whale activity
Order book shows ask pressure still dominant, though bids are slowly rebuilding near 0.54
Selling momentum is decelerating → selling exhaustion possible
🔹 Indicators Snapshot
RSI: Deeply oversold (below lower Bollinger Band)
EMAs: 7 < 25 < 99 → Bearish alignment
MACD: Expanding negative histogram → trend still bearish
🎯 Trade Scenarios
Aggressive Counter-Trend short (Scalp / Relief Bounce):
Bearish Continuation (Safer Play):
Sell on rejection: 0.58 – 0.60
Stop: Above 0.63
Targets:
0.54
0.50
0.48
🧠 Summary
KAITO remains structurally bearish after a fundamental shock, but extreme oversold conditions suggest short-term bounce potential. Trend traders should favor selling rallies, while aggressive traders can scalp rebounds with tight risk.
⚠️ Volatility remains elevated — manage position size strictly.
