Outlook construtivo para 2026: valuations mais realistas em IA, ouro fortalecido como ativo monetário e cripto com viés positivo no longo prazo. Curto prazo exige seletividade.

According to BlockBeats, as 2026 begins, clearer fiscal and monetary signals are supporting a more positive risk appetite, with attractive investment opportunities emerging in areas such as artificial intelligence, private credit, gold, India, and cryptocurrencies.Key points include a significant pullback in AI-related stocks at the end of 2025, resetting valuations and making investments in AI and related themes more appealing. Gold continues to re-emerge as a global monetary asset, with recent corrections providing better entry points. Business Development Companies (BDCs) offer more attractive yields and valuations after a challenging 2025. India remains a high-growth potential investment market, while cryptocurrencies are bullish in the long term, though short-term signals are complex.Entering 2026, the market is in a rare state of clarity. While selectivity remains crucial, the clarity around fiscal policy, monetary policy direction, and major investment themes supports a more aggressive risk appetite strategy.Following a dramatic pullback in some AI-related stocks late last year, AI trading is now more attractive than the "breathtaking" highs of October. Notably, this pullback occurred alongside strong potential demand for computing, tokens, and productivity enhancements.Related themes, such as nuclear energy linked to AI-driven power demand, have also seen significant price adjustments. This adjustment improves the risk-reward situation for investors with a medium to long-term perspective.Future fiscal and monetary policy surprises are expected to decrease. One of the most important developments for the market is the gradual improvement in the U.S. fiscal situation. Although deficits remain high, their proportion of GDP has decreased from the historical highs during the pandemic. This fiscal stability helps anchor long-term interest rates and reduces tail risks.In terms of interest rates, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent describes current levels as "normal," which is significant. The market should not expect aggressive or destabilizing short-term rate cuts in 2026. Instead, the outlook points to policy stability, moderate adjustments, and fewer shocks, contributing to a clearer market outlook.BDCs, after a tough 2025, present opportunities due to attractive yields and largely absorbed credit concerns. Management companies behind them, like Ares, also have valuations that are more reasonable compared to their long-term profitability and past performance.Gold is continuing to re-emerge as a leading global currency, driven by central bank demand and the global economy's gradual shift away from dollar dominance. Despite technically high prices, VanEck sees the recent pullback as a good opportunity to increase holdings, with structural advantages remaining intact.Outside the U.S., India continues to be a promising long-term investment market, thanks to structural reforms and ongoing growth momentum.In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle was disrupted in 2025, complicating short-term signals. This divergence supports a more cautious short-term outlook for the next 3 to 6 months. However, not all within VanEck share this view, as Matthew Sigel and David Schassler hold a more positive stance on the recent cycle.