🇺🇸 MACRO UPDATE — TRUMP REMARKS SHIFT RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS
Markets are repricing the U.S. rate path for 2026.
CME FedWatch data shows traders have scaled back expectations for multiple rate cuts, following comments from President Donald Trump suggesting he may nominate someone other than Kevin Hassett to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
📊 2026 Rate Cut Probabilities (CME FedWatch): • No rate cuts: 11.8%
• 25 bps cut: 30.3%
• 50 bps cut: 32.1%
Trump stated he wants Hassett to remain in his current role, signaling uncertainty around future Fed leadership. With Powell’s term ending in 2026, markets are now pricing policy risk + leadership risk, not just inflation and growth.
📌 Key takeaway:
Fed independence remains intact, but expectations matter. Leadership uncertainty alone can tighten financial conditions and shift rate forecasts — even before any policy change happens.
#Macro #FederalReserve #interestrates #USPoliticsAndCrypto #markets
