Trump Remarks 'Lock In' Fed Chair Nomination, Kevin Warsh Nomination Odds Skyrocket
BlockBeats News, January 17th. Today, President Trump, during an appearance where Kevin Hassett was present, remarked on the White House National Economic Council Director, saying, "I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth." This comment strongly suggests that Trump intends to retain Hassett in his current role rather than nominate him for Fed Chair, dramatically shifting market expectations away from the previous close contest between Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh toward Warsh as the overwhelming favorite. Notably, prior signals had kept the race tight, but Trump's explicit preference to not move Hassett has clarified the direction.
Forecasting market Polymarket data now shows Hassett's probability of nomination has plunged to around 15-16%, aligning him with Fed Governor Christopher Waller in the low teens, while Kevin Warsh's odds have surged to the 56-60% range (with some reports citing up to 59-60% on Polymarket and similar on Kalshi), establishing him as the decisive frontrunner and leaving other contenders far behind.
Compared to Trump's close ally and staunch advocate for aggressive rate cuts Hassett (often seen as an "absolute dove"), Kevin Warsh maintains a more hawkish profile overall. Still, markets anticipate that Warsh would back continued rate reductions while prioritizing balance sheet normalization (QT). Warsh has previously argued in 2025 that "inflation is a choice," attributing persistent inflation primarily to the Fed's policy missteps rather than external factors like supply chains or geopolitics. He remains highly optimistic on the U.S. economy, forecasting a major productivity surge driven by AI advancements and deregulation, reminiscent of the 1980s boom.