🇧🇷 FOCUS REPORT — MARKET EXPECTATIONS 📊
(Released Monday, Jan 19)
🔻 Inflation (IPCA)
• 2026: 4.02% ⬇️ (from 4.05%)
• 2027: 3.80% ➖
• 2028: 3.50% ➖
• 2029: 3.50% ➖
📈 GDP Growth
• 2026: 1.80% ➖
• 2027: 1.80% ➖
• 2028: 2.00% ➖
• 2029: 2.00% ➖
🏦 Selic Rate (Policy Rate)
• 2026: 12.25% ➖
• 2027: 10.50% ➖
• 2028: 10.00% ⬆️ (from 9.88%)
• 2029: 9.50% ➖
📌 Market curve signal:
• Selic end-2026 priced ~12.81%
• Previous: 12.61%
⚠️ Takeaway:
Inflation expectations ease slightly, growth stays muted, but the rate curve is drifting higher, signaling persistent tightening risk.