$ETH 🔥 ETHUSDT: THE STEALTHY BREAKDOWN

📊 MULTI-TIMEFRAME CONFLUENCE ANALYSIS

Market Structure:

· 4H Chart: Bearish alignment - price below all major EMAs (9,15,50,100,200). Supertrend at 3325 confirms downtrend. RSI at 39.76 (bearish but not oversold).

· 1H Chart: Critical support break - price collapsed below the 1H Supertrend (2968). Now retesting it as resistance. RSI at 45.3 (neutral with bearish bias).

· 15M Chart: Bear flag formation - price consolidating between 2955-2960 after a sharp drop. Volume declining = distribution.

Market Psychology:

· False Hope: Bulls trapped at higher levels (3000+) now facing margin calls. Retail hoping for bounce gets liquidated.

· Order Book Imbalance: 51.01% Bids vs 48.99% Asks. Big wall at 2900 (support) but thin above 2955 = vulnerable to breakdown.

· Funding Rate: Positive but minimal (0.00117%). Shows complacency - traders not hedging downside.

🎯 TRADE STRATEGY (RETEST & REJECT)

Direction: SHORT

Entry Zone: 2960 - 2965 (Failed retest of broken Supertrend)

Take Profit (TP): 2900 (-2.2%)

Stop Loss (SL): 2985 (+1.0%)

Leverage: 50x

Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.2

Why This Short Works:

1. Technical Breakdown: Price broke below 1H Supertrend - now retesting resistance.

2. EMA Stack: All timeframes show bearish EMA alignment (death cross on 4H).

3. Volume Confirmation: Selling volume > buying volume during breakdown.

4. Market Structure: Lower highs, lower lows intact.

⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT

· Position size: 1.2% max capital. 50x leverage requires precision.

· SL above recent swing high (2985) and 1H Supertrend.

· If price reclaims 2970 and holds, reconsider thesis.

✅ CONFIRMATION TRIGGERS

· 1H candle rejection at 2960-2965 with long wick.

· RSI(14) on 1H fails to break above 50.

· 15M volume surge on move down.

This is a trend-following short. The market structure broke - I'm trading the retest of that breakdown. Don't fight the trend.#GrayscaleBNBETFFiling #ETHMarketWatch #WEFDavos2026 #TrumpCancelsEUTariffThreat