🚨 Gold at ~$4,900–$5,000 — Parabolic indeed, but history screams caution ⚠️🥇
+80–85% in 12 months? Spot on — that's 2025's monster run (from ~$2,700–$3,000 range end-2024 to current highs). Not "normal" bull; it's euphoria territory.
Historical rhymes (your examples hold up):
1980: +400%+ run → $850 peak → 50–65% crash, multi-year bear.
2011: $1,920 top after big rally → ~43% drawdown, then 4+ years sideways pain.
2020: $2,075 ATH → 20–25% pullback, then grind.
Pattern: After 60–100%+ surges, gold corrects hard (20–50% typical), shakes out leveraged longs, resets sentiment. "This time different" (central bank buying, geopolitics, inflation) is the same narrative every top called.
Current risks amplified:
Record COMEX futures positioning? Leveraged longs vulnerable.
If USD rebounds or rates surprise higher, unwind accelerates.
BTC/XAG correlation: If risk-off hits, they tank together initially.
Gold remains ultimate hedge long-term — but short-term? Parabolics end ugly. 20–40% correction to $3,500–$4,000 wouldn't shock.
Not calling top tomorrow, but fading strength here has edge. Protect profits, size small shorts if conviction high.
What do you think — topping soon or straight to $6k? 🔥
