Polymarket Users Predict ~53% Chance the Clarity Act Gets Signed Into Law in 2026
Prediction market pricing currently shows about a ~52–53% probability that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) will be passed by Congress and signed into law by the end of 2026. This reflects traders on Polymarket speculating on legislative outcomes.
📌 What This Means:
Polymarket prices probabilities based on marketplace bets, not official government forecasts.
A ~53% implied chance means markets are roughly split on likelihood, not that passage is imminent or guaranteed.
Because Polymarket is a prediction platform, prices reflect sentiment and betting behavior, not definitive political outcomes.
What This Means:
Polymarket prices probabilities based on marketplace bets, not official government forecasts.
A ~53% implied chance means markets are roughly split on likelihood, not that passage is imminent or guaranteed.
Because Polymarket is a prediction platform, prices reflect sentiment and betting behavior, not definitive political outcomes.
⚠️ Important Context:
The Clarity Act already passed the House in 2025 with bipartisan support and is still under consideration in the Senate and by stakeholders.
Political uncertainties (e.g., potential government funding fights and shutdown risks) could affect legislative timing and votes.
Prediction markets aren’t deterministic:
Prices are influenced by how traders interpret political dynamics, legislative calendars, and risk.
A 53% prediction isn’t overwhelming confidence — it’s modest optimism combined with meaningful uncertainty.
📊 Why Crypto Markets Care:
If the Clarity Act were enacted:
It could establish clearer regulatory roles (SEC vs. CFTC) for digital assets.
That might reduce regulatory uncertainty and influence investor confidence and project activity — which is why traders are paying attention.
