From my personal perspective, weeks that include a U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) meeting are typically high-risk periods for Bitcoin, especially in terms of volatility and potential downside pressure.
On January 28, I followed insights shared by Ali Charts regarding the first FOMC interest rate meeting of 2026. One key detail stood out:
📉 Market expectations for a rate cut in January are only around 2.8%, indicating that short-term monetary easing is highly unlikely.
🔍 Looking back at historical data from 2025, a clear pattern emerges:
Bitcoin experienced noticeable corrections after most FOMC meetings
Only one meeting resulted in a brief upside move
In one case, Bitcoin dropped by nearly 9% following the announcement
📌 This suggests a recurring theme:
FOMC weeks are rarely favorable for Bitcoin, even when the market enters the meeting with optimistic expectations about rate cuts.
Based on my observations:
Prices are often pushed higher ahead of the meeting due to speculation
Once the FED decision is announced, the market frequently reacts with a classic “sell the news” move
This makes post-announcement downside risk significantly higher, especially for leveraged positions
⚠️ My personal takeaway:
During periods like this, risk management matters far more than chasing short-term gains. While volatility can appear on both sides, the risk-to-reward in the short term tends to favor caution rather than aggression.
🧠 For traders and investors, I believe it’s wise to:
Avoid FOMO ahead of FED meetings
Reduce leverage and manage position size carefully
Wait for clear market reactions after the policy decision is released
The market will always offer new opportunities — but surviving and protecting capital during sensitive macro weeks like FOMC is the real priority.
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#FedWatch #StrategyBTCPurchase
