The price action of $BTC over the past 2 weeks has been quite sad. We started the year with a strong pop for roughly a week, then BTC corrected from $94k to $90k, then it pumped again to $98k, but that marked the top, and it’s been extremely weak since then. On Jan 19, it dumped hard as a reaction to Trump wanting to tariff Europe about Greenland. It kept dumping after that and reached the equilibrium level at $87k. It pumped a bit when Trump cancelled the tariffs, but overall remained close to this $87k-$88k where it is still sitting right now.

Even though I remain constructive on BTC in the grand scheme of things, we are clearly in bear market conditions, as BTC is struggling massively against both the stock market (regularly making new highs) and obviously precious metals, which are going crazy. Gold has reached $5000, and Silver is going parabolic, it pumped 2x in less than two months. That pump culminated with a short squeeze to $118 yesterday, immediately followed by a -13% retrace.

The spotlight is now on commodities, but only the physical ones, BTC is not getting any love. Even with Saylor having already bought more than $3bn worth of $BTC this month, it wasn’t enough. The new strategy by Saylor is now to keep buying BTC by selling MSTR, even close to 1x mNAV, because it creates more room to issue more prefs without increasing the leverage of the balance. By doing this, it also decreases the share that the convertible bonds represent in the “leverage mix”.