The #FedWatch tool from CME Group shows how markets price the U.S.
Federal Reserve’s interest rate expectations, which can strongly impact crypto sentiment. Recently, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut in January 2026 is around ~17 %, with most of the market pricing in no change in rates — roughly an ~82–87 % chance of a hold — according to the latest #FedWatch FedWatch data.
These shifting expectations influence liquidity, risk appetite, and Bitcoin price movement, as traders adjust positions ahead of major Fed policy announcements and FOMC meetings.
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