On January 30, CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV provided insights into Bitcoin's future market trends based on the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) indicator. According to BlockBeats, despite Bitcoin's price reaching new highs, climbing from approximately $40,000 to over $100,000 since early 2024, the aSOPR indicator presents a contrasting picture. It reveals a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating key information about investor behavior. Each time Bitcoin hits a new price peak, holders are increasingly quick to take profits, suggesting a gradual weakening of confidence with each rally.
MorenoDV noted that the market is currently at a critical juncture. The aSOPR consistently respects a descending channel, with touches on the upper boundary corresponding to local price tops and touches on the lower boundary indicating local bottoms. Presently, Bitcoin is testing the lower boundary of this descending channel amid extreme fear, with approximately one-third of the total supply in a state of unrealized loss. Historically, such conditions (aSOPR below 1.0 combined with significant unrealized losses) have often presented tactical buying opportunities before short-term rebounds. However, the market now stands at a crossroads. If the current support level fails and other technical indicators confirm bearish momentum, the market may enter a phase of capitulation.