🚨 BITCOIN UPDATE $BTC
• Bitcoin is ~28% below its long-term power-law trend.
At this stage of previous cycles, BTC was overheated, not discounted. $ZIL
This degree of undervaluation vs trend has never happened before.
• Institutional positioning remains aggressively bullish. $ANKR
CME futures show a ~32% annualized premium, while retail leverage is muted (perp funding ~8%).
Historically, tops form with excess retail leverage — its absence suggests a healthier, more durable base.
• ETF stress test passed.
~$2.5B in ETF outflows absorbed with no structural breakdown.
Meanwhile, hash rate at all-time highs confirms miner confidence and strong underlying demand.
• Derivatives are capping price — temporarily.
Heavy options gamma resistance near $100K, but ~42% of that exposure expires soon, likely weakening overhead pressure.
• On-chain supply remains tight.
Long-term holders are not distributing, exchange balances stay low, and sell-side liquidity is constrained.
• Market structure > narratives.
This is compression, not distribution. Historically, such conditions resolve with sharp upward repricing, not reversals.
Bottom line:
Bitcoin is structurally stuck, historically cheap for this phase, and quietly building pressure.
The setup favors a breakout, not a breakdown. 🔥
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #InstitutionalFlows #OnChain