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Anndy Lian
Asian markets flash red while US stocks climb, Bitcoin rebound: The divergence explained

Markets found their footing today as a surprising burst of strength in American manufacturing activity recalibrated investor expectations across asset classes. The US ISM manufacturing survey for January delivered an unexpected leap from 47.9 in December to 52.6, well above the 48.5 estimate and the highest level since August 2022.

This single data point acted as an anchor for risk sentiment, lifting US equities: the Dow Jones climbed 1.05 per cent, the S&P 500 added 0.54 per cent, and the Nasdaq gained 0.56 per cent. Chipmakers and AI-related companies led the advance, while smaller-cap stocks surged sharply, reflecting a broadening of market participation beyond the narrow leadership that has characterized recent sessions. The VIX Index retreated to 16.34, signaling diminished anxiety among options traders even as the underlying catalyst suggested an economy with more momentum than previously assumed.

This resilience in risk assets despite stronger economic data presents a nuanced picture of market psychology. Typically robust manufacturing numbers would pressure equity valuations by reinforcing expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, yet Treasury yields absorbed the news with measured moves. The two-year yield rose 4.9 basis points to 3.572 per cent while the ten-year climbed 4.2 basis points to 4.277 per cent. The modest rate repricing suggests investors are separating near-term data strength from a firmly entrenched expectation of Federal Reserve easing later this year. Markets appear to be pricing a pause in early 2026, coinciding with Jerome Powell’s scheduled departure as Fed Chair in May, followed by two anticipated rate reductions in the second and third quarters. This forward-looking stance allows equities to rally on current strength while bonds gradually reposition in anticipation of eventual monetary accommodation.

The US dollar capitalised on this dynamic, strengthening against all G10 currencies with the Dollar Index climbing 0.66 per cent to 97.632. The greenback’s advance drew additional support from a pronounced sell-off in precious metals as investors rotated out of traditional safe havens. Gold tumbled 4.8 per cent to 4661 dollars per ounce while silver plunged 7 per cent to 79 dollars per ounce. This flight from metals into dollars created a self-reinforcing cycle of dollar strength visible in major pairs. The euro weakened against the dollar, closing at 1.1791, down 0.5 per cent, while the Japanese yen extended its decline, with USD/JPY rising 0.55 per cent to 155.63. Concerns about fiscal sustainability following projections of a strong election win for Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi added pressure on the yen, creating a divergence between US and Japanese monetary trajectories.

Commodities faced headwinds beyond the dollar’s strength. Brent crude fell 4.4 per cent to settle at 66 dollars per barrel as easing tensions between the US and Iran removed a geopolitical premium from oil prices. This move aligned with a cautiously negative outlook for crude given its sensitivity to diplomatic developments.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market staged a technical rebound, rising 2.65 per cent to a total valuation of 2.64 trillion dollars. This recovery followed a violent weekend deleveraging event that flushed over two and a half billion dollars in liquidations, primarily from overextended long positions. The bounce reflected an oversold condition rather than a fundamental shift with Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 holding at 85 per cent, underscoring the macro-driven nature of the move. Select altcoins, including Hyperliquid, surged on project-specific catalysts, but the broader market remains fragile, hinging on Bitcoin’s ability to defend the 73,000 to 78,000 dollar support zone.

Asian markets told a contrasting story opening the week deep in negative territory as regional investors trimmed risk exposure amid the precious metals collapse and crypto volatility. South Korea’s Kospi Index tumbled 5.3 per cent, triggering an intraday trading halt amid anxiety over potential US tariff actions. China’s Shanghai Composite fell 2.5 per cent while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng retreated 2.2 per cent, reflecting regional sensitivity to shifts in global risk appetite. These losses highlighted the uneven nature of the global recovery, with emerging Asian markets reacting more sharply to risk-off signals than their US counterparts. Yet the divergence proved temporary as Asian indices traded higher by Tuesday morning, with US futures pointing upward, suggesting the initial sell-off represented an overreaction to weekend events rather than a structural breakdown.

President Trump’s announcement of a US-India trade deal added a geopolitical dimension to the session. The agreement immediately lowers reciprocal tariffs with the US, reducing the US rate on Indian goods from 25 per cent to 18 per cent, while India eliminates its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on American products. This development signals a pragmatic recalibration of trade policy that could ease supply chain friction and support manufacturing activity going forward. The deal arrives at a time when markets are seeking catalysts beyond monetary policy to sustain economic momentum, making its timing particularly relevant for cyclical sectors like industrials and financials.

My perspective on this market configuration centres on sustainability. The rally in US equities driven by manufacturing strength and trade optimism faces a fundamental test in the months ahead. Strong data today supports risk assets, but persistent strength could delay the Fed easing cycle that markets have priced in for mid-year. The bond market’s muted reaction to the ISM surprise suggests investors believe this manufacturing rebound is isolated rather than the start of a broad-based acceleration. I view the current environment as a transitional phase in which markets balance near-term resilience against medium-term vulnerability, particularly in labour markets, where weakness is expected to manifest ahead of anticipated rate cuts.

The crypto rebound exemplifies this fragility. A 2.65 per cent gain after massive liquidations represents technical exhaustion, not renewed conviction. The market’s tight correlation with the S&P 500 confirms it is a risk asset rather than a diversifier. True stabilisation requires Bitcoin to hold above 78000 dollars and spot ETF outflows to moderate, neither of which has occurred decisively. Similarly, the dollar’s strength may prove temporary if Fed easing materialises as expected, though near-term momentum favours continued greenback resilience.

Looking forward, the path of least resistance for markets depends on whether the manufacturing rebound broadens into other sectors or proves ephemeral. Investors should monitor labour market indicators closely, as any deterioration would validate the Fed’s easing narrative, supporting both bonds and equities. In the interim, a barbell approach makes sense, overweighting quality fixed income with five to seven-year duration while maintaining exposure to select cyclicals and defensives within equities. The recovery remains uneven and fragile, but the combination of strong data trade progress and technical rebounds has created a window of stability that markets are using to reposition for the next phase of the cycle. How long this window remains open depends on whether economic strength proves durable or gives way to the softening that monetary policy anticipates.

 

Source: https://e27.co/asian-markets-flash-red-while-us-stocks-climb-bitcoin-rebound-the-divergence-explained-20260203/

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