Institutional and Bearish Forecasts for 2026
While retail sentiment is shaky, institutional activity remains a significant "counter-weight." Companies like MicroStrategy (Strategy) continue to accumulate even as prices dip below their recent cost basis.
Firm/Analyst2026 Low/Base TargetBullish/Year-End TargetRationaleBernstein$60,000 rangeReversal expectedLate-stage correction; "most consequential cycle" incoming.JPMorgan$94,000 (Floor)$150,000+Volatility-adjusted gold model; ETF growth to revive momentum.Fundstrat (S. Farrell)$60,000–$65,000$150,000+Base case retracement for H1 2026; long-term upside remains.Standard CharteredN/A$150,000Price appreciation now depends almost entirely on ETF inflows.Peter BrandtAs low as $25,000N/AExtreme "fractal-based" view if the 2022 collapse repeats.
Key Market Drivers
Macro Pressure: Rising bond yields, a partial U.S. government shutdown, and hawkish Fed signals (following Kevin Warsh's nomination) are currently weighing on "risk-on" assets.
ETF Dynamics: While U.S. spot ETFs saw roughly $1.49 billion in outflows last week, total assets under management remain high, suggesting that long-term holders are not fully exiting.
Technical Breakdown: Bitcoin is currently trading below its 50-day ($88,790) and 200-day ($97,547) EMAs, confirming that bears have the upper hand in the immediate trend.
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