🔻 Bitcoin Enters a Downtrend? The 4-Year Cycle May Be Repeating After the $126K Peak 🟠📉

Bitcoin may have officially shifted into a new downtrend phase, and according to historical patterns, this move looks familiar. In my view, the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is still valid, and 2026 is starting to resemble past post-peak years.

⏳ Why the 4-Year Cycle Matters

Bitcoin’s market structure has always revolved around the Halving event. Each halving cuts new BTC supply in half, creating scarcity. Historically, this triggers a strong bull run 1–1.5 years after the halving, followed by a market top and then a deep correction.

📚 History Repeating?

Let’s look at past cycles:

• 2012 Halving → 2013 peak → 2014 downtrend

• 2016 Halving → 2017 peak → 2018 downtrend

• 2020 Halving → 2021 peak → 2022 downtrend

Now fast forward:

• 2024 Halving → 2025 peak near $126K → 2026 strong decline

Bitcoin has broken its previous uptrend structure and is now showing clear lower highs and lower lows, a classic downtrend signal.

🏦 What About ETFs?

Many believe ETFs have “broken” the 4-year cycle. I disagree. ETFs may reduce volatility, but they don’t eliminate market psychology. Cycles are driven by liquidity, sentiment, and supply shocks, not just new instruments.

The difference this time?

👉 The drop may be less violent, but the cycle structure still appears intact.

⚠️ What This Means for Traders & Investors

• Avoid chasing short-term bounces

• Relief rallies can be traps

• Deeper downside is still possible in 2026

• Patience matters more than prediction

This could be a distribution-to-accumulation transition year, where smart money waits instead of forcing entries.

🧠 Final Thought

In my opinion, the 2026 downtrend is already confirmed, something I had anticipated since late 2025. The next true opportunity may come after the pain, not during temporary recoveries.