📉 ADP Misses Big: US Job Growth Stalls, Markets Bet on Fed Rate Cuts
US private payrolls (ADP) for January 2026 rose by just +22,000 jobs, sharply missing market expectations of around 45,000–48,000 and slowing from +41,000 in December.
The data signals that the US labor market is cooling faster than expected, prompting investors to price in earlier Fed rate cuts, despite the Fed maintaining a cautious “data-dependent” stance.
Market takeaway: Bad data = good narrative.
Weak job numbers support risk assets in the short term, but if the slowdown persists, the story may shift from “rate cuts” to real economic deceleration.
💭 What do you think — is this a real Fed pivot signal or just short-term noise? 👇